Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 13

Club Brugge KV–Dender

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Club Brugge KVN. Tresoldi (assist: Carlos Forbs)
29'Club Brugge KVC. Tzolis
90'DenderM. Berte (assist: B. Nsimba)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Club Brugge KV		Dender
19	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	4
4	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
700	Passes	340
633	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Club Brugge KV 2.38 · Dender 0.54. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Club Brugge KV 19 · Dender 14; on target 5 and 5.
Club Brugge KV kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Kevin van Damme, Belgium→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 76.9%: “Club Brugge KV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.67 for Club Brugge KV, 0.85 for Dender.
The highest double chance value is 91.9% (1X — Club Brugge KV win or draw).
These values were computed from 954 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Club Brugge KV to win76.9%

Draw15.0%

Dender to win8.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 735 of 908 predictions were correct (80.9%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Club Brugge KV lead at half-time47.6%

Level at half-time40.8%

Dender lead at half-time11.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Club Brugge KV ahead or level88.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Dender ahead52.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 954 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Club Brugge KV: at least 9Actual: 10
Dender: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Club Brugge KV: at least 5Actual: 7
Dender: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Club Brugge KV score2.38

Attack: Club Brugge KV score above the league average (42% more).

Opponent's defence: Dender concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.38 goals.

How many goals Dender score0.54

Attack: Dender score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Club Brugge KV concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.8%2–19.8%3–09.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.