Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 13

Standard Liege–Charleroi

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 31 October 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 2.1% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Standard LiegeM. Nzita (own goal)
40'CharleroiParfait Guiagon (assist: P. Pflücke)
47'Standard LiegeT. Henry (assist: R. Said)
58'Standard LiegeR. Said

Match statistics

Match statistics
Standard Liege		Charleroi
8	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
335	Passes	456
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Standard Liege 1.11 · Charleroi 1.12. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Standard Liege 8 · Charleroi 12; on target 5 and 4.
Charleroi kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Eric Lambrechts, Belgium→

3.60

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.0%: “Charleroi to win”. Second comes “Standard Liege to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.15 for Standard Liege, 1.19 for Charleroi.
The highest double chance value is 69.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 952 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Standard Liege to win33.8%

Draw30.2%

Charleroi to win36.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Standard Liege lead at half-time27.1%

Level at half-time44.2%

Charleroi lead at half-time28.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Standard Liege ahead or level71.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or Charleroi ahead72.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 952 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Standard Liege: at least 9Actual: 10
Charleroi: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Standard Liege: at least 4Actual: 4
Charleroi: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Standard Liege score1.11

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charleroi score1.12

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.3%0–110.6%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.