Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 12

Gent–Standard Liege

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ghelamco Arena, Ghent

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'GentS. Van der Heyden
17'GentO. Gandelman (assist: H. Goore)
45'GentS. Van der Heyden (assist: M. Delorge)
83'GentO. Gandelman (assist: M. Dean)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gent		Standard Liege
16	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
451	Passes	455
370	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gent 1.54 · Standard Liege 1.04. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Gent 16 · Standard Liege 12; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

Nathan Verboomen, Belgium→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.8%: “Gent to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Gent, 1.07 for Standard Liege.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (1X — Gent win or draw).
These values were computed from 947 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gent to win48.8%

Draw27.0%

Standard Liege to win24.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Gent lead at half-time23.7%

Level at half-time43.9%

Standard Liege lead at half-time32.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Gent ahead or level67.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Standard Liege ahead76.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 947 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gent: at least 10Actual: 11
Standard Liege: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Gent: at least 5Actual: 4
Standard Liege: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gent score1.54

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Standard Liege score1.04

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Gent concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–110.4%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.