Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 12

KV Mechelen–OH Leuven

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 16:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.9% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

74'KV MechelenT. Koudou (assist: Lion Lauberbach)
90'OH LeuvenE. Pletinckx (assist: Y. Maziz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KV Mechelen		OH Leuven
14	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
427	Passes	339
359	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KV Mechelen 1.58 · OH Leuven 0.95. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots KV Mechelen 14 · OH Leuven 13; on target 5 and 4.
KV Mechelen kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Kevin van Damme, Belgium→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.8%: “KV Mechelen to win”. Second comes “OH Leuven to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for KV Mechelen, 1.30 for OH Leuven.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 946 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KV Mechelen to win36.8%

Draw28.3%

OH Leuven to win34.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

KV Mechelen lead at half-time45.8%

Level at half-time41.7%

OH Leuven lead at half-time12.5%

First-half double chance

1X — KV Mechelen ahead or level87.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or OH Leuven ahead54.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 946 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KV Mechelen: at least 9Actual: 7
OH Leuven: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

KV Mechelen: at least 5Actual: 6
OH Leuven: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.58

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OH Leuven's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OH Leuven score0.95

Attack: OH Leuven score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%2–19.1%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.