Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 12

KVC Westerlo–Dender

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Het Kuipje, Westerlo

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'DenderD. Toshevski (assist: Junior Marsoni Sambu Mansoni)
65'KVC WesterloThomas Van den Keybus (assist: I. Sakamoto)

Match statistics

Match statistics
KVC Westerlo		Dender
23	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	3
20	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
62%	Possession	38%
469	Passes	286
385	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KVC Westerlo 2.02 · Dender 0.88. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots KVC Westerlo 23 · Dender 11; on target 6 and 3.
KVC Westerlo kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Anthony Letellier, Belgium→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.8%: “KVC Westerlo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for KVC Westerlo, 1.20 for Dender.
The highest double chance value is 76.4% (1X — KVC Westerlo win or draw).
These values were computed from 945 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KVC Westerlo to win51.8%

Draw24.7%

Dender to win23.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time41.4%

Level at half-time41.3%

Dender lead at half-time17.3%

First-half double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo ahead or level82.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Dender ahead58.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 945 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KVC Westerlo: at least 10Actual: 12
Dender: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

KVC Westerlo: at least 4Actual: 11
Dender: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KVC Westerlo score2.02

Attack: KVC Westerlo score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Dender concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dender score0.88

Attack: Dender score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.7%2–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.