Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 12

Charleroi–Anderlecht

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 October 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.4% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

82'CharleroiC. Keita (assist: Parfait Guiagon)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Charleroi		Anderlecht
8	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	9
1	Offsides	1
39%	Possession	61%
286	Passes	474
221	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Charleroi 1.22 · Anderlecht 1.20. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Charleroi 8 · Anderlecht 15; on target 3 and 2.
Anderlecht kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Lawrence Visser, Belgium→

5.67

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.3%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “Charleroi to win” at 34.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.26 for Charleroi, 1.29 for Anderlecht.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 944 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Charleroi to win34.9%

Draw28.8%

Anderlecht to win36.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	18

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Charleroi lead at half-time28.4%

Level at half-time44.1%

Anderlecht lead at half-time27.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Charleroi ahead or level72.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Anderlecht ahead71.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 944 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Charleroi: at least 10Actual: 8
Anderlecht: at least 10Actual: 18

Corners

Charleroi: at least 4Actual: 5
Anderlecht: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Charleroi score1.22

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anderlecht score1.20

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–19.1%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.