Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 11

Zulte Waregem–Gent

4–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 October 2025 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Elindus Arena, Waregem

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 1.8% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'Zulte WaregemT. Claes (assist: S. Gavriel)
25'Zulte WaregemT. Araujo (own goal)
41'Zulte WaregemB. Nyssen
78'GentO. Gandelman (assist: Jean-Kévin Duverne)
81'Zulte WaregemJ. Erenbjerg

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zulte Waregem		Gent
15	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	12
4	Offsides	0
40%	Possession	60%
363	Passes	535
274	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zulte Waregem 1.52 · Gent 1.19. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Zulte Waregem 15 · Gent 14; on target 7 and 5.
Gent kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Eric Lambrechts, Belgium→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “Gent to win”. Second comes “Zulte Waregem to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Zulte Waregem, 1.50 for Gent.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 942 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zulte Waregem to win35.8%

Draw26.5%

Gent to win37.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time35.1%

Level at half-time42.0%

Gent lead at half-time22.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Zulte Waregem ahead or level77.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Gent ahead64.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 942 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zulte Waregem: at least 9Actual: 7
Gent: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Zulte Waregem: at least 4Actual: 3
Gent: at least 4Actual: 12

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zulte Waregem score1.52

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gent score1.19

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%1–29.3%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.