Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 11

St. Truiden–Anderlecht

2–2

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'AnderlechtNathan De Cat (assist: T. Hazard)
18'St. TruidenR. Yamamoto (assist: Robert-Jan Vanwesemael)
19'AnderlechtM. Cvetkovic (assist: T. Hazard)
76'St. TruidenK. Matsuzawa (assist: S. Jukleroed)

Match statistics

Match statistics
St. Truiden		Anderlecht
15	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
428	Passes	448
337	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: St. Truiden 1.35 · Anderlecht 1.33. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots St. Truiden 15 · Anderlecht 11; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

Nicolas Laforge, Belgium→

5.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.9%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “St. Truiden to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for St. Truiden, 1.56 for Anderlecht.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 941 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

St. Truiden to win29.2%

Draw26.9%

Anderlecht to win43.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

St. Truiden lead at half-time23.7%

Level at half-time45.3%

Anderlecht lead at half-time31.0%

First-half double chance

1X — St. Truiden ahead or level69.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.7%

X2 — level or Anderlecht ahead76.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 941 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

St. Truiden: at least 10Actual: 6
Anderlecht: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

St. Truiden: at least 4Actual: 5
Anderlecht: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals St. Truiden score1.35

Attack: St. Truiden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Anderlecht score1.33

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–210.1%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.