Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 11

Cercle Brugge–Genk

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 October 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'GenkP. Hrošovský (assist: Oh Hyeon-Gyu)
43'Cercle BruggeA. Minda (assist: G. Magnée)
57'GenkOh Hyeon-Gyu (assist: Y. Medina)
68'Cercle BruggeE. Diop (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cercle Brugge		Genk
18	Shots	16
7	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
37%	Possession	63%
354	Passes	632
290	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cercle Brugge 1.32 · Genk 1.46. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Cercle Brugge 18 · Genk 16; on target 7 and 5.
Genk kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Wesli De Cremer, Belgium→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.6%: “Genk to win”. Second comes “Cercle Brugge to win” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Cercle Brugge, 1.71 for Genk.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 939 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cercle Brugge to win29.9%

Draw25.5%

Genk to win44.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time40.6%

Genk lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Cercle Brugge ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Genk ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 939 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cercle Brugge: at least 11Actual: 10
Genk: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Cercle Brugge: at least 4Actual: 4
Genk: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.32

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Genk's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Genk score1.46

Attack: Genk score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–210.1%2–18.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.