Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 10

Anderlecht–Standard Liege

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

54'AnderlechtM. Cvetkovic
89'Standard LiegeIbrahim Karamoko · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Anderlecht		Standard Liege
17	Shots	9
6	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
51%	Possession	49%
398	Passes	384
300	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anderlecht 1.64 · Standard Liege 0.87. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Anderlecht 17 · Standard Liege 9; on target 6 and 1.

Referee

Bram Van Driessche, Belgium→

3.40

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.1%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.89 for Anderlecht, 0.96 for Standard Liege.
The highest double chance value is 82.7% (1X — Anderlecht win or draw).
These values were computed from 932 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anderlecht to win59.1%

Draw23.6%

Standard Liege to win17.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,774 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Anderlecht lead at half-time30.6%

Level at half-time46.6%

Standard Liege lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Anderlecht ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time53.4%

X2 — level or Standard Liege ahead69.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 932 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Anderlecht: at least 10Actual: 18
Standard Liege: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Anderlecht: at least 5Actual: 6
Standard Liege: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anderlecht score1.64

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Standard Liege score0.87

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.87 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–111.0%2–010.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.