Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 10

Gent–Charleroi

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 3 October 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ghelamco Arena, Ghent

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'GentA. Ito (assist: M. Delorge)
28'CharleroiP. Pflücke
71'GentO. Gandelman (assist: M. Skóraś)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gent		Charleroi
9	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	3
6	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
62%	Possession	38%
579	Passes	351
494	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gent 1.43 · Charleroi 1.23. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Gent 9 · Charleroi 9; on target 3 and 7.
Gent kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Lawrence Visser, Belgium→

5.60

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.4%: “Gent to win”. Second comes “Charleroi to win” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Gent, 1.23 for Charleroi.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 928 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gent to win45.4%

Draw26.6%

Charleroi to win28.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Gent lead at half-time28.2%

Level at half-time42.4%

Charleroi lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Gent ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Charleroi ahead71.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 928 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gent: at least 9Actual: 5
Charleroi: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Gent: at least 4Actual: 4
Charleroi: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gent score1.43

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Charleroi's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charleroi score1.23

Attack: Charleroi score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–110.2%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.