Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 9

Cercle Brugge–Gent

2–4

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'GentM. Skóraś (assist: W. Kanga)
22'Cercle BruggeS. Ngoura (penalty)
43'Cercle BruggeE. Utkus (assist: G. Magnée)
45'GentA. Ito (assist: M. Skóraś)
69'GentO. Gandelman (assist: M. Skóraś)
87'GentF. Surdez

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cercle Brugge		Gent
23	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	8
17	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
10	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
360	Passes	384
285	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cercle Brugge 1.68 · Gent 1.11. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots Cercle Brugge 23 · Gent 11; on target 8 and 8.

Referee

Bert Put, Belgium→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Cercle Brugge to win”. Second comes “Gent to win” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Cercle Brugge, 1.35 for Gent.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 925 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cercle Brugge to win42.2%

Draw26.4%

Gent to win31.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time37.4%

Level at half-time41.7%

Gent lead at half-time20.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Cercle Brugge ahead or level79.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Gent ahead62.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 925 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cercle Brugge: at least 10Actual: 12
Gent: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Cercle Brugge: at least 5Actual: 10
Gent: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.68

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Gent's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Gent score1.11

Attack: Gent score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–19.9%1–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.