Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 9

Union St. Gilloise–KVC Westerlo

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

63'Union St. GilloiseP. David
78'Union St. GilloiseM. Giger (assist: L. Patris)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Union St. Gilloise		KVC Westerlo
19	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	2
3	Offsides	2
54%	Possession	46%
409	Passes	353
308	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise 2.33 · KVC Westerlo 0.71. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Union St. Gilloise 19 · KVC Westerlo 7; on target 6 and 2.

Referee

Nicolas Laforge, Belgium→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.8%: “Union St. Gilloise to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.39 for Union St. Gilloise, 1.00 for KVC Westerlo.
The highest double chance value is 87.4% (1X — Union St. Gilloise win or draw).
These values were computed from 923 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Union St. Gilloise to win68.8%

Draw18.6%

KVC Westerlo to win12.6%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,039 of 1,527 predictions were correct (68.0%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Union St. Gilloise lead at half-time67.4%

Level at half-time29.2%

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time3.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Union St. Gilloise ahead or level96.6%

12 — not level at half-time70.8%

X2 — level or KVC Westerlo ahead32.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 923 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Union St. Gilloise: at least 10Actual: 15
KVC Westerlo: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Union St. Gilloise: at least 5Actual: 9
KVC Westerlo: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Union St. Gilloise score2.33

Attack: Union St. Gilloise score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.33 goals.

How many goals KVC Westerlo score0.71

Attack: KVC Westerlo score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Union St. Gilloise concede 41% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.71 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.6%2–09.8%1–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.