Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 9

Zulte Waregem–Antwerp

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Elindus Arena, Waregem

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

56'Zulte WaregemJ. Erenbjerg (assist: A. Ementa)
84'Zulte WaregemM. Aké (assist: J. Erenbjerg)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zulte Waregem		Antwerp
17	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	4
1	Offsides	4
43%	Possession	57%
358	Passes	476
287	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zulte Waregem 1.39 · Antwerp 1.19. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Zulte Waregem 17 · Antwerp 8; on target 6 and 1.
Antwerp kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Bert Verbeke, Netherlands→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.1%: “Zulte Waregem to win”. Second comes “Antwerp to win” at 30.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Zulte Waregem, 1.26 for Antwerp.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 921 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zulte Waregem to win42.1%

Draw27.3%

Antwerp to win30.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time31.1%

Level at half-time40.8%

Antwerp lead at half-time28.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Zulte Waregem ahead or level71.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Antwerp ahead68.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 921 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zulte Waregem: at least 11Actual: 6
Antwerp: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Zulte Waregem: at least 4Actual: 4
Antwerp: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zulte Waregem score1.39

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Antwerp's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Antwerp score1.19

Attack: Antwerp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–19.8%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.