Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 8

KV Mechelen–Cercle Brugge

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 September 2025 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
KV Mechelen		Cercle Brugge
13	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	11
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	7
2	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
330	Passes	339
244	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KV Mechelen 1.62 · Cercle Brugge 1.12. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots KV Mechelen 13 · Cercle Brugge 16; on target 2 and 5.

Referee

Bert Verbeke, Netherlands→

0.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “KV Mechelen to win”. Second comes “Cercle Brugge to win” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for KV Mechelen, 1.42 for Cercle Brugge.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 917 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KV Mechelen to win40.5%

Draw26.3%

Cercle Brugge to win33.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 2,214 of 3,676 predictions were correct (60.2%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — KV Mechelen win or draw66.7%

12 — any result other than a draw73.7%

X2 — draw or Cercle Brugge win59.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

KV Mechelen lead at half-time33.6%

Level at half-time42.6%

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time23.8%

First-half double chance

1X — KV Mechelen ahead or level76.2%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Cercle Brugge ahead66.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 917 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KV Mechelen: at least 10Actual: 6
Cercle Brugge: at least 10Actual: 17

Corners

KV Mechelen: at least 4Actual: 7
Cercle Brugge: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,135 predictions were correct (57.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KV Mechelen score1.62

Attack: KV Mechelen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.12

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KV Mechelen's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%2–19.7%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 917 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 100 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.