Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 8

KVC Westerlo–Standard Liege

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 September 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Het Kuipje, Westerlo

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

24'Standard LiegeC. Nielsen (assist: A. Abid)
40'Standard LiegeA. Abid

Match statistics

Match statistics
KVC Westerlo		Standard Liege
17	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	1
2	Offsides	8
60%	Possession	40%
498	Passes	341
413	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: KVC Westerlo 1.74 · Standard Liege 1.05. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots KVC Westerlo 17 · Standard Liege 6; on target 4 and 3.
KVC Westerlo kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Kevin van Damme, Belgium→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.7%: “KVC Westerlo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for KVC Westerlo, 1.23 for Standard Liege.
The highest double chance value is 75.5% (1X — KVC Westerlo win or draw).
These values were computed from 915 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

KVC Westerlo to win50.7%

Draw24.8%

Standard Liege to win24.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time43.0%

Standard Liege lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — KVC Westerlo ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Standard Liege ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 915 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

KVC Westerlo: at least 10Actual: 7
Standard Liege: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

KVC Westerlo: at least 5Actual: 7
Standard Liege: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals KVC Westerlo score1.74

Attack: KVC Westerlo score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Standard Liege's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Standard Liege score1.05

Attack: Standard Liege score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.6%2–07.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.