Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 8

Anderlecht–Antwerp

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Anderlecht		Antwerp
18	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
68%	Possession	32%
603	Passes	285
508	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anderlecht 1.69 · Antwerp 0.98. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Anderlecht 18 · Antwerp 6; on target 2 and 1.
Anderlecht kept the ball more (68%).

Referee

Eric Lambrechts, Belgium→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.5%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Anderlecht, 1.00 for Antwerp.
The highest double chance value is 81.4% (1X — Anderlecht win or draw).
These values were computed from 913 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anderlecht to win57.5%

Draw24.0%

Antwerp to win18.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

9	Fouls	13

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 3,524 of 6,225 predictions were correct (56.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Anderlecht win or draw81.4%

12 — any result other than a draw76.0%

X2 — draw or Antwerp win42.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Anderlecht lead at half-time34.5%

Level at half-time42.6%

Antwerp lead at half-time22.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Anderlecht ahead or level77.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Antwerp ahead65.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 913 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Anderlecht: at least 10Actual: 9
Antwerp: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Anderlecht: at least 4Actual: 8
Antwerp: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,356 of 4,137 predictions were correct (56.9%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anderlecht score1.69

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Antwerp's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Antwerp score0.98

Attack: Antwerp score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–111.0%2–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 913 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 119 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.