Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 5

Zulte Waregem–St. Truiden

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 23 August 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Elindus Arena, Waregem

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 3.1% between the top twodouble chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'Zulte WaregemT. Hedl · red card
72'St. TruidenR. Yamamoto (assist: L. Patris)
81'St. TruidenK. Goto (assist: R. Ito)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Zulte Waregem		St. Truiden
6	Shots	18
2	Shots on target	4
3	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	11
3	Offsides	0
36%	Possession	64%
293	Passes	518
225	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zulte Waregem 1.60 · St. Truiden 1.15. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Zulte Waregem 6 · St. Truiden 18; on target 2 and 4.
St. Truiden kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

K. van Damme→

6.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.8%: “Zulte Waregem to win”. Second comes “St. Truiden to win” at 34.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Zulte Waregem, 1.36 for St. Truiden.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 889 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zulte Waregem to win37.8%

Draw27.4%

St. Truiden to win34.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,093 of 5,647 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	0

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time32.2%

Level at half-time41.7%

St. Truiden lead at half-time26.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Zulte Waregem ahead or level74.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or St. Truiden ahead67.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 889 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zulte Waregem: at least 9Actual: 10
St. Truiden: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Zulte Waregem: at least 5Actual: 2
St. Truiden: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zulte Waregem score1.60

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: St. Truiden's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals St. Truiden score1.15

Attack: St. Truiden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–19.3%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.