Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 4

Cercle Brugge–KVC Westerlo

4–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 August 2025 at 17:15
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'Cercle BruggeP. Gerkens (assist: Flávio Nazinho)
37'Cercle BruggeA. Minda (assist: L. Agyekum)
45'Cercle BruggeS. Ngoura (assist: G. Magnée)
70'KVC WesterloJosimar Alcócer (assist: K. Vaesen)
90'Cercle BruggeO. Adewumi (assist: Erick)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cercle Brugge		KVC Westerlo
12	Shots	25
7	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
1	Corners	11
3	Offsides	0
47%	Possession	53%
335	Passes	378
258	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cercle Brugge 1.61 · KVC Westerlo 1.20. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots Cercle Brugge 12 · KVC Westerlo 25; on target 7 and 6.

Referee

A. Letellier→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.7%: “Cercle Brugge to win”. Second comes “KVC Westerlo to win” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Cercle Brugge, 1.34 for KVC Westerlo.
The highest double chance value is 74.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 887 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cercle Brugge to win44.7%

Draw25.8%

KVC Westerlo to win29.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

Cercle Brugge lead at half-time29.3%

Level at half-time41.4%

KVC Westerlo lead at half-time29.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Cercle Brugge ahead or level70.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.6%

X2 — level or KVC Westerlo ahead70.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 887 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cercle Brugge: at least 10Actual: 10
KVC Westerlo: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Cercle Brugge: at least 6Actual: 1
KVC Westerlo: at least 4Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cercle Brugge score1.61

Attack: Cercle Brugge score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: KVC Westerlo concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals KVC Westerlo score1.20

Attack: KVC Westerlo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cercle Brugge's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.1%1–27.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.