Jupiler Pro League · Belgium · Regular Season - 3

Anderlecht–Zulte Waregem

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 August 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 19%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Zulte WaregemT. Hedl (assist: Joseph Okopu)
50'AnderlechtK. Dolberg (penalty)
69'Zulte WaregemS. Ujka (assist: Y. Cappelle)
74'AnderlechtAnton Tanghe (own goal)
90'Zulte WaregemJ. Erenbjerg

Match statistics

Match statistics
Anderlecht		Zulte Waregem
20	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	5
0	Offsides	2
71%	Possession	29%
564	Passes	238
493	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Anderlecht 1.78 · Zulte Waregem 0.90. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Anderlecht 20 · Zulte Waregem 9; on target 7 and 6.
Anderlecht kept the ball more (71%).

Referee

B. Put→

3.71

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.0%: “Anderlecht to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.92 for Anderlecht, 1.08 for Zulte Waregem.
The highest double chance value is 80.6% (1X — Anderlecht win or draw).
These values were computed from 877 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Anderlecht to win57.0%

Draw23.6%

Zulte Waregem to win19.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Anderlecht lead at half-time69.6%

Level at half-time27.1%

Zulte Waregem lead at half-time3.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Anderlecht ahead or level96.8%

12 — not level at half-time72.9%

X2 — level or Zulte Waregem ahead30.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 877 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Anderlecht: at least 9Actual: 11
Zulte Waregem: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Anderlecht: at least 4Actual: 6
Zulte Waregem: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Anderlecht score1.78

Attack: Anderlecht score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zulte Waregem's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zulte Waregem score0.90

Attack: Zulte Waregem score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Anderlecht concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–111.0%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.