La Liga · Spain · Regular Season - 26

Leganes–Getafe

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 2 March 2025 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 31%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90+2'LeganesDiego García

Match statistics

Match statistics
Leganes		Getafe
6	Shots	9
1	Shots on target	0
5	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
426	Passes	272
322	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Leganes 1.10 · Getafe 1.18. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Leganes 6 · Getafe 9; on target 1 and 0.
Leganes kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Alejandro Muñiz→

4.70

yellows per match

0.42

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 34.4%: “Getafe to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.90 for Leganes, 0.95 for Getafe.
The highest double chance value is 68.6% (X2 — draw or Getafe win).
These values were computed from 1,015 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Leganes to win31.4%

Draw34.2%

Getafe to win34.4%

When the model has said 30–35% in the past, 1,976 of 6,366 predictions were correct (31.0%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Leganes lead at half-time32.8%

Level at half-time47.4%

Getafe lead at half-time19.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Leganes ahead or level80.2%

12 — not level at half-time52.6%

X2 — level or Getafe ahead67.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1015 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Leganes: at least 12Actual: 15
Getafe: at least 14Actual: 15

Corners

Leganes: at least 3Actual: 2
Getafe: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Leganes score1.10

Attack: Leganes score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Getafe's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Getafe score1.18

Attack: Getafe score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Leganes concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.6%0–015.3%0–114.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.