Premiership · Scotland · Relegation Group - 38

Livingston–Kilmarnock

1–4

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

19'LivingstonS. May (assist: B. McKay)
24'KilmarnockJ. Hugill (assist: D. Thompson)
34'KilmarnockN. Cleșcenco (assist: G. Kiltie)
53'KilmarnockFindlay Curtis (assist: D. Thompson)
58'KilmarnockJ. Hugill (assist: R. Deas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Livingston		Kilmarnock
9	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	8
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	1
1	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
546	Passes	516
483	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Livingston 1.55 · Kilmarnock 1.43. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Livingston 9 · Kilmarnock 14; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

R. Lee→

3.27

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.1%: “Kilmarnock to win”. Second comes “Livingston to win” at 35.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Livingston, 1.53 for Kilmarnock.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 867 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Livingston to win35.6%

Draw26.3%

Kilmarnock to win38.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Livingston win or draw61.9%

12 — any result other than a draw73.7%

X2 — draw or Kilmarnock win64.4%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Livingston lead at half-time26.5%

Level at half-time40.2%

Kilmarnock lead at half-time33.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Livingston ahead or level66.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Kilmarnock ahead73.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 867 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Livingston: at least 11Actual: 10
Kilmarnock: at least 12Actual: 10

Corners

Livingston: at least 4Actual: 6
Kilmarnock: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.6%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Livingston score1.55

Attack: Livingston score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kilmarnock concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kilmarnock score1.43

Attack: Kilmarnock score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Livingston concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.8%1–29.3%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 867 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 99 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.