Premiership · Scotland · Championship Group - 37

Heart Of Midlothian–Falkirk

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 13 May 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

29'Heart Of MidlothianFrankie Kent (assist: A. Kyziridis)
34'Heart Of MidlothianC. Devlin
86'Heart Of MidlothianBlair Spittal (assist: M. Steinwender)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heart Of Midlothian		Falkirk
12	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
456	Passes	236
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian 1.81 · Falkirk 0.89. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Heart Of Midlothian 12 · Falkirk 4; on target 4 and 1.
Heart Of Midlothian kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

N. Walsh→

4.46

yellows per match

0.30

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 68.3%: “Heart Of Midlothian to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.15 for Heart Of Midlothian, 0.83 for Falkirk.
The highest double chance value is 88.3% (1X — Heart Of Midlothian win or draw).
These values were computed from 861 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heart Of Midlothian to win68.3%

Draw19.9%

Falkirk to win11.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Heart Of Midlothian lead at half-time44.4%

Level at half-time39.5%

Falkirk lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Heart Of Midlothian ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Falkirk ahead55.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 861 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 11Actual: 6
Falkirk: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 5Actual: 5
Falkirk: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score1.81

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Falkirk's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Falkirk score0.89

Attack: Falkirk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.89 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.1%2–110.8%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.