Premiership · Scotland · Relegation Group - 36

Dundee–Livingston

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

13'DundeeC. Congreve (assist: J. Westley)
71'DundeeF. Robertson
83'DundeeA. Hay (assist: F. Robertson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dundee		Livingston
16	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	3
12	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
7	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
421	Passes	565
345	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dundee 1.85 · Livingston 1.05. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Dundee 16 · Livingston 10; on target 4 and 3.
Livingston kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

C. Steven→

4.17

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.1%: “Dundee to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Dundee, 1.07 for Livingston.
The highest double chance value is 78.4% (1X — Dundee win or draw).
These values were computed from 858 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dundee to win53.1%

Draw25.2%

Livingston to win21.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

3	Fouls	5

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Dundee lead at half-time49.5%

Level at half-time36.8%

Livingston lead at half-time13.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Dundee ahead or level86.3%

12 — not level at half-time63.2%

X2 — level or Livingston ahead50.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 858 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dundee: at least 9Actual: 3
Livingston: at least 12Actual: 5

Corners

Dundee: at least 4Actual: 7
Livingston: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dundee score1.85

Attack: Dundee score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Livingston concede 33% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Livingston score1.05

Attack: Livingston score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dundee concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–110.8%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.