Premiership · Scotland · Relegation Group - 36

ST Mirren–Kilmarnock

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The SMISA Stadium, Paisley

Goals and red cards

9'KilmarnockM. Freckleton (own goal)
46'KilmarnockFindlay Curtis (assist: G. Kiltie)
68'KilmarnockFindlay Curtis (assist: T. Lowery)

Match statistics

Match statistics
ST Mirren		Kilmarnock
12	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
616	Passes	427
527	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: ST Mirren 1.66 · Kilmarnock 1.06. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots ST Mirren 12 · Kilmarnock 10; on target 2 and 4.
ST Mirren kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

D. Robertson→

3.55

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.0%: “ST Mirren to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for ST Mirren, 1.08 for Kilmarnock.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (1X — ST Mirren win or draw).
These values were computed from 858 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

ST Mirren to win47.0%

Draw27.5%

Kilmarnock to win25.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

ST Mirren lead at half-time32.3%

Level at half-time43.5%

Kilmarnock lead at half-time24.3%

First-half double chance

1X — ST Mirren ahead or level75.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Kilmarnock ahead67.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 858 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

ST Mirren: at least 11Actual: 11
Kilmarnock: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

ST Mirren: at least 5Actual: 1
Kilmarnock: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals ST Mirren score1.66

Attack: ST Mirren score below the league average (23% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kilmarnock concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kilmarnock score1.06

Attack: Kilmarnock score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: ST Mirren's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–010.5%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.