Premiership · Scotland · Championship Group - 35

Heart Of Midlothian–Rangers

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 4 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'RangersD. Sterling
54'Heart Of MidlothianS. Kingsley
71'Heart Of MidlothianL. Shankland

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heart Of Midlothian		Rangers
11	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	6
1	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
299	Passes	417
214	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian 1.43 · Rangers 1.32. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Heart Of Midlothian 11 · Rangers 13; on target 5 and 3.
Rangers kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

J. Beaton→

4.37

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.6%: “Rangers to win”. Second comes “Heart Of Midlothian to win” at 32.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.36 for Heart Of Midlothian, 1.53 for Rangers.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 857 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heart Of Midlothian to win32.7%

Draw26.7%

Rangers to win40.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Heart Of Midlothian lead at half-time34.7%

Level at half-time41.9%

Rangers lead at half-time23.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Heart Of Midlothian ahead or level76.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Rangers ahead65.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 857 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 10Actual: 8
Rangers: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 4Actual: 2
Rangers: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score1.43

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rangers concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rangers score1.32

Attack: Rangers score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.32 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%1–29.7%2–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.