Premiership · Scotland · Relegation Group - 35

Livingston–Aberdeen

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 1 May 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

24'AberdeenM. Frame (assist: D. Geiger)
47'LivingstonJ. Nouble
71'AberdeenD. Finlayson (own goal)
78'LivingstonR. Muirhead

Match statistics

Match statistics
Livingston		Aberdeen
16	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
415	Passes	421
312	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Livingston 1.43 · Aberdeen 1.36. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Livingston 16 · Aberdeen 7; on target 5 and 2.

Referee

C. Scott→

3.24

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.9%: “Aberdeen to win”. Second comes “Livingston to win” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Livingston, 1.41 for Aberdeen.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 855 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Livingston to win33.3%

Draw27.8%

Aberdeen to win38.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	15

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Livingston win or draw61.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.2%

X2 — draw or Aberdeen win66.7%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Livingston lead at half-time31.1%

Level at half-time42.7%

Aberdeen lead at half-time26.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Livingston ahead or level73.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Aberdeen ahead68.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 855 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Livingston: at least 11Actual: 10
Aberdeen: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Livingston: at least 4Actual: 6
Aberdeen: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (55.9%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Livingston score1.43

Attack: Livingston score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aberdeen's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aberdeen score1.36

Attack: Aberdeen score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Livingston concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.4%2–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 855 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 99 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.