Premiership · Scotland · Relegation Group - 34

Dundee Utd–Dundee

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tannadice Park, Dundee

Goals and red cards

14'Dundee UtdW. Ferry
70'Dundee UtdW. Ferry (assist: Vicko Ševelj)
72'Dundee UtdR. Strain (assist: W. Ferry)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dundee Utd		Dundee
18	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
48%	Possession	52%
256	Passes	278
162	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dundee Utd 1.87 · Dundee 1.14. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Dundee Utd 18 · Dundee 10; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

M. MacDermid→

4.10

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.3%: “Dundee Utd to win”. Second comes “Dundee to win” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.56 for Dundee Utd, 1.18 for Dundee.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 853 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dundee Utd to win45.3%

Draw27.1%

Dundee to win27.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

22	Fouls	7

1	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Dundee Utd lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time42.1%

Dundee lead at half-time26.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Dundee Utd ahead or level73.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Dundee ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 853 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dundee Utd: at least 12Actual: 22
Dundee: at least 8Actual: 7

Corners

Dundee Utd: at least 5Actual: 2
Dundee: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dundee Utd score1.87

Attack: Dundee Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dundee concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dundee score1.14

Attack: Dundee score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dundee Utd concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–110.2%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.