Premiership · Scotland · Championship Group - 34

Celtic–Falkirk

3–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Celtic Park, Glasgow

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'CelticD. Maeda
44'CelticK. Tierney (assist: D. Maeda)
70'FalkirkK. Wilson (assist: L. McCann)
83'CelticD. Maeda (assist: S. Tounekti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celtic		Falkirk
14	Shots	11
7	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	7
3	Offsides	3
55%	Possession	45%
446	Passes	364
350	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celtic 2.30 · Falkirk 0.76. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Celtic 14 · Falkirk 11; on target 7 and 3.
Celtic kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

R. Lee→

3.13

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 75.3%: “Celtic to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.60 for Celtic, 0.87 for Falkirk.
The highest double chance value is 91.1% (1X — Celtic win or draw).
These values were computed from 852 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celtic to win75.3%

Draw15.8%

Falkirk to win8.9%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Celtic lead at half-time56.1%

Level at half-time34.1%

Falkirk lead at half-time9.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Celtic ahead or level90.2%

12 — not level at half-time65.9%

X2 — level or Falkirk ahead43.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 852 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celtic: at least 11Actual: 16
Falkirk: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

Celtic: at least 5Actual: 9
Falkirk: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celtic score2.30

Attack: Celtic score above the league average (46% more).

Opponent's defence: Falkirk's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Falkirk score0.76

Attack: Falkirk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–010.7%2–110.0%3–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.