Premiership · Scotland · Relegation Group - 34

Aberdeen–Kilmarnock

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen

Goals and red cards

1'AberdeenA. Aremu (assist: S. Armstrong)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aberdeen		Kilmarnock
10	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
302	Passes	428
206	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aberdeen 1.74 · Kilmarnock 1.16. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Aberdeen 10 · Kilmarnock 11; on target 4 and 3.
Kilmarnock kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

N. Walsh→

4.41

yellows per match

0.31

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Aberdeen to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Aberdeen, 1.13 for Kilmarnock.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (1X — Aberdeen win or draw).
These values were computed from 852 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aberdeen to win49.0%

Draw26.3%

Kilmarnock to win24.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Aberdeen win or draw75.3%

12 — any result other than a draw73.7%

X2 — draw or Kilmarnock win51.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Aberdeen lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time42.8%

Kilmarnock lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Aberdeen ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Kilmarnock ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 852 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aberdeen: at least 11Actual: 16
Kilmarnock: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Aberdeen: at least 5Actual: 6
Kilmarnock: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (55.8%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aberdeen score1.74

Attack: Aberdeen score below the league average (15% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kilmarnock concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.74 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kilmarnock score1.16

Attack: Kilmarnock score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aberdeen's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.5%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 852 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 142 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.