Premiership · Scotland · Relegation Group - 34

ST Mirren–Livingston

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The SMISA Stadium, Paisley

Goals and red cards

67'LivingstonA. Gogić (own goal)
81'LivingstonS. Pittman (assist: L. Smith)

Match statistics

Match statistics
ST Mirren		Livingston
17	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	7
1	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
512	Passes	304
435	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: ST Mirren 1.75 · Livingston 0.90. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots ST Mirren 17 · Livingston 4; on target 4 and 2.
ST Mirren kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

D. Dickinson→

4.38

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.4%: “ST Mirren to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.83 for ST Mirren, 0.98 for Livingston.
The highest double chance value is 81.6% (1X — ST Mirren win or draw).
These values were computed from 852 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

ST Mirren to win57.4%

Draw24.2%

Livingston to win18.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

ST Mirren lead at half-time41.0%

Level at half-time41.7%

Livingston lead at half-time17.3%

First-half double chance

1X — ST Mirren ahead or level82.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Livingston ahead59.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 852 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

ST Mirren: at least 12Actual: 13
Livingston: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

ST Mirren: at least 5Actual: 8
Livingston: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals ST Mirren score1.75

Attack: ST Mirren score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Livingston concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Livingston score0.90

Attack: Livingston score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: ST Mirren's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.9%2–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.