Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 33

Dundee Utd–Livingston

3–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tannadice Park, Dundee

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Dundee UtdW. Ferry (assist: M. Watters)
49'LivingstonL. Smith (assist: J. Nouble)
53'LivingstonL. Smith (assist: J. Prior)
75'Dundee UtdK. Keresztes (assist: W. Ferry)
90'Dundee UtdZ. Sapsford (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dundee Utd		Livingston
15	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	6
13	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
363	Passes	359
228	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dundee Utd 2.07 · Livingston 0.93. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Dundee Utd 15 · Livingston 14; on target 5 and 6.

Referee

C. Graham→

4.89

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 57.9%: “Dundee Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.90 for Dundee Utd, 1.02 for Livingston.
The highest double chance value is 81.5% (1X — Dundee Utd win or draw).
These values were computed from 846 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dundee Utd to win57.9%

Draw23.6%

Livingston to win18.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	9

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Dundee Utd lead at half-time38.2%

Level at half-time41.0%

Livingston lead at half-time20.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Dundee Utd ahead or level79.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Livingston ahead61.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 846 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dundee Utd: at least 11Actual: 7
Livingston: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Dundee Utd: at least 5Actual: 4
Livingston: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dundee Utd score2.07

Attack: Dundee Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Livingston concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Livingston score0.93

Attack: Livingston score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dundee Utd concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–111.0%2–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.