Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 33

Aberdeen–Hibernian

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'HibernianG. Hanley · red card
17'AberdeenK. Nisbet (penalty)
75'AberdeenK. Nisbet

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aberdeen		Hibernian
17	Shots	4
5	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	1
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
3	Offsides	4
52%	Possession	48%
421	Passes	387
338	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aberdeen 1.16 · Hibernian 1.49. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Aberdeen 17 · Hibernian 4; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

D. Dickinson→

4.38

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.6%: “Hibernian to win”. Second comes “Aberdeen to win” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Aberdeen, 1.49 for Hibernian.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 846 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aberdeen to win28.8%

Draw27.6%

Hibernian to win43.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Aberdeen lead at half-time20.8%

Level at half-time42.9%

Hibernian lead at half-time36.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Aberdeen ahead or level63.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Hibernian ahead79.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 846 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aberdeen: at least 11Actual: 18
Hibernian: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Aberdeen: at least 5Actual: 3
Hibernian: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aberdeen score1.16

Attack: Aberdeen score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hibernian concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hibernian score1.49

Attack: Hibernian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aberdeen concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–210.0%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.