Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 32

Dundee–Celtic

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 April 2026 at 15:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'CelticYang Hyun-Jun (assist: B. Nygren)
57'DundeeS. Murray (penalty)
82'CelticK. Ịheanachọ (assist: M. Saracchi)
84'DundeeR. Astley · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dundee		Celtic
8	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	8
6	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
401	Passes	552
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dundee 0.98 · Celtic 1.94. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Dundee 8 · Celtic 17; on target 3 and 8.
Celtic kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

S. McLean→

3.46

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.9%: “Celtic to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for Dundee, 2.11 for Celtic.
The highest double chance value is 84.3% (X2 — draw or Celtic win).
These values were computed from 845 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dundee to win15.7%

Draw21.5%

Celtic to win62.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Dundee lead at half-time21.3%

Level at half-time39.5%

Celtic lead at half-time39.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Dundee ahead or level60.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Celtic ahead78.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 845 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dundee: at least 8Actual: 7
Celtic: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Dundee: at least 3Actual: 1
Celtic: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dundee score0.98

Attack: Dundee score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celtic score1.94

Attack: Celtic score above the league average (48% more).

Opponent's defence: Dundee concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 1.94 goals.

Most likely scorelines

1–211.0%1–110.6%0–210.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.