Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 32

ST Mirren–Aberdeen

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The SMISA Stadium, Paisley

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

40'ST MirrenJ. Ayunga
83'ST MirrenA. Gogić (assist: S. Tanser)

Match statistics

Match statistics
ST Mirren		Aberdeen
11	Shots	7
4	Shots on target	0
5	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
468	Passes	345
382	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: ST Mirren 1.58 · Aberdeen 1.05. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots ST Mirren 11 · Aberdeen 7; on target 4 and 0.
ST Mirren kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

N. Walsh→

4.43

yellows per match

0.32

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “ST Mirren to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for ST Mirren, 1.08 for Aberdeen.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (1X — ST Mirren win or draw).
These values were computed from 840 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

ST Mirren to win48.2%

Draw27.1%

Aberdeen to win24.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

8	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

ST Mirren lead at half-time33.2%

Level at half-time45.5%

Aberdeen lead at half-time21.3%

First-half double chance

1X — ST Mirren ahead or level78.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Aberdeen ahead66.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 840 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

ST Mirren: at least 11Actual: 8
Aberdeen: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

ST Mirren: at least 5Actual: 8
Aberdeen: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals ST Mirren score1.58

Attack: ST Mirren score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Aberdeen concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aberdeen score1.05

Attack: Aberdeen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: ST Mirren's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–110.3%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.