Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 31

Kilmarnock–Livingston

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'KilmarnockJ. Hugill (assist: M. Watkins)
77'KilmarnockFindlay Curtis (assist: J. Hugill)
84'LivingstonBrooklyn Kabongolo · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kilmarnock		Livingston
17	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
360	Passes	516
276	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kilmarnock 1.89 · Livingston 1.02. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Kilmarnock 17 · Livingston 10; on target 4 and 1.
Livingston kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

R. Lee→

3.43

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.7%: “Kilmarnock to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Kilmarnock, 1.09 for Livingston.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (1X — Kilmarnock win or draw).
These values were computed from 834 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kilmarnock to win52.7%

Draw25.2%

Livingston to win22.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	7

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kilmarnock lead at half-time47.1%

Level at half-time37.9%

Livingston lead at half-time15.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Kilmarnock ahead or level85.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.1%

X2 — level or Livingston ahead52.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 834 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kilmarnock: at least 11Actual: 14
Livingston: at least 12Actual: 7

Corners

Kilmarnock: at least 5Actual: 3
Livingston: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kilmarnock score1.89

Attack: Kilmarnock score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Livingston concede 32% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Livingston score1.02

Attack: Livingston score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kilmarnock concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.8%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.