Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 30

ST Mirren–Rangers

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The SMISA Stadium, Paisley

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'RangersTuur Rommens (assist: N. Raskin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
ST Mirren		Rangers
6	Shots	17
1	Shots on target	7
4	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	11
4	Offsides	3
47%	Possession	53%
423	Passes	462
322	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: ST Mirren 1.02 · Rangers 1.66. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots ST Mirren 6 · Rangers 17; on target 1 and 7.

Referee

S. McLean→

3.52

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.4%: “Rangers to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.89 for ST Mirren, 2.04 for Rangers.
The highest double chance value is 86.0% (X2 — draw or Rangers win).
These values were computed from 832 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

ST Mirren to win14.0%

Draw21.5%

Rangers to win64.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — ST Mirren win or draw35.6%

12 — any result other than a draw78.5%

X2 — draw or Rangers win86.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (21.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

ST Mirren lead at half-time20.8%

Level at half-time44.1%

Rangers lead at half-time35.1%

First-half double chance

1X — ST Mirren ahead or level64.9%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Rangers ahead79.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 832 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

ST Mirren: at least 12Actual: 7
Rangers: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

ST Mirren: at least 4Actual: 1
Rangers: at least 5Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 55.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals ST Mirren score1.02

Attack: ST Mirren score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rangers concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rangers score1.66

Attack: Rangers score above the league average (39% more).

Opponent's defence: ST Mirren's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–211.4%1–210.9%1–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 832 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 143 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.