Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 29

Heart Of Midlothian–Aberdeen

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 28 February 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'Heart Of MidlothianCláudio Braga (assist: P. Kabore)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heart Of Midlothian		Aberdeen
21	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	0
11	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
54%	Possession	46%
365	Passes	321
254	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian 2.13 · Aberdeen 0.72. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Heart Of Midlothian 21 · Aberdeen 5; on target 7 and 0.

Referee

K. Clancy→

3.75

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.1%: “Heart Of Midlothian to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.07 for Heart Of Midlothian, 0.81 for Aberdeen.
The highest double chance value is 87.9% (1X — Heart Of Midlothian win or draw).
These values were computed from 819 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heart Of Midlothian to win67.1%

Draw20.8%

Aberdeen to win12.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Heart Of Midlothian lead at half-time47.7%

Level at half-time39.8%

Aberdeen lead at half-time12.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Heart Of Midlothian ahead or level87.5%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or Aberdeen ahead52.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 819 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 10Actual: 7
Aberdeen: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 5Actual: 7
Aberdeen: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score2.13

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aberdeen concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aberdeen score0.72

Attack: Aberdeen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.4%1–010.9%2–110.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.