Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 26

Celtic–Livingston

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 11 February 2026 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Celtic Park, Glasgow

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'CelticM. Saracchi
57'LivingstonR. Muirhead (penalty)
90'CelticA. Oxlade-Chamberlain (assist: S. Tounekti)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Celtic		Livingston
29	Shots	4
12	Shots on target	2
18	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	9
10	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
79%	Possession	21%
687	Passes	190
625	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Celtic 2.99 · Livingston 0.34. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Celtic 29 · Livingston 4; on target 12 and 2.
Celtic kept the ball more (79%).

Referee

C. Scott→

3.14

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 86.2%: “Celtic to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 3.10 for Celtic, 0.65 for Livingston.
The highest double chance value is 96.1% (1X — Celtic win or draw).
These values were computed from 802 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Celtic to win86.2%

Draw9.9%

Livingston to win3.9%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,425 of 3,100 predictions were correct (46.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Celtic win or draw96.1%

12 — any result other than a draw90.1%

X2 — draw or Livingston win13.8%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (9.9%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Celtic lead at half-time68.0%

Level at half-time27.3%

Livingston lead at half-time4.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Celtic ahead or level95.3%

12 — not level at half-time72.7%

X2 — level or Livingston ahead32.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 802 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Celtic: at least 11Actual: 12
Livingston: at least 10Actual: 7

Corners

Celtic: at least 6Actual: 10
Livingston: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals73.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 405 of 553 predictions were correct (73.2%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 55.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Celtic score2.99

Attack: Celtic score above the league average (50% more).

Opponent's defence: Livingston concede 36% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: A strong attack meets a weak defence. The effects compound and the expectation rises to 2.99 goals.

How many goals Livingston score0.34

Attack: Livingston score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 30% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–012.2%2–011.4%4–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 802 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 91 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.