Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 24

Dundee Utd–Heart Of Midlothian

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 31 January 2026 at 20:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tannadice Park, Dundee

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Heart Of MidlothianP. Kabore (assist: H. Milne)
24'Dundee UtdA. Fatah · red card
29'Heart Of MidlothianA. Kyziridis (penalty)
75'Dundee UtdP. Camara · red card
81'Heart Of MidlothianP. Kabore

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dundee Utd		Heart Of Midlothian
3	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	12
2	Shots inside the box	18
8	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	6
3	Offsides	0
30%	Possession	70%
206	Passes	479
114	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dundee Utd 1.14 · Heart Of Midlothian 1.53. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Dundee Utd 3 · Heart Of Midlothian 22; on target 2 and 12.
Heart Of Midlothian kept the ball more (70%).

Referee

C. Scott→

3.10

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.7%: “Heart Of Midlothian to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.97 for Dundee Utd, 1.72 for Heart Of Midlothian.
The highest double chance value is 80.2% (X2 — draw or Heart Of Midlothian win).
These values were computed from 794 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dundee Utd to win19.8%

Draw25.5%

Heart Of Midlothian to win54.7%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	1

2	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Dundee Utd lead at half-time21.1%

Level at half-time42.7%

Heart Of Midlothian lead at half-time36.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Dundee Utd ahead or level63.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Heart Of Midlothian ahead78.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 794 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dundee Utd: at least 12Actual: 12
Heart Of Midlothian: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Dundee Utd: at least 4
Heart Of Midlothian: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dundee Utd score1.14

Attack: Dundee Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score1.53

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Dundee Utd's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%0–110.9%1–210.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.