Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 21

Falkirk–Aberdeen

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

58'FalkirkF. Lissah (assist: C. Miller)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Falkirk		Aberdeen
21	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	0
10	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	4
3	Offsides	4
56%	Possession	44%
442	Passes	345
355	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Falkirk 1.52 · Aberdeen 1.12. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Falkirk 21 · Aberdeen 7; on target 7 and 0.
Falkirk kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

J. Beaton→

4.42

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.6%: “Falkirk to win”. Second comes “Aberdeen to win” at 29.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Falkirk, 1.20 for Aberdeen.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 771 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Falkirk to win42.6%

Draw27.7%

Aberdeen to win29.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Falkirk lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time46.2%

Aberdeen lead at half-time28.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Falkirk ahead or level71.1%

12 — not level at half-time53.8%

X2 — level or Aberdeen ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 771 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Falkirk: at least 11Actual: 9
Aberdeen: at least 12Actual: 21

Corners

Falkirk: at least 5Actual: 5
Aberdeen: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Falkirk score1.52

Attack: Falkirk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aberdeen's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aberdeen score1.12

Attack: Aberdeen score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Falkirk's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.8%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.