Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 21

Motherwell–ST Mirren

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fir Park, Motherwell

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'MotherwellTawanda Jethro Maswanhise (assist: E. Just)
57'MotherwellE. Watt (assist: Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Motherwell		ST Mirren
15	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	8
4	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
503	Passes	398
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Motherwell 1.47 · ST Mirren 1.04. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Motherwell 15 · ST Mirren 9; on target 8 and 2.
Motherwell kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

C. Scott→

3.05

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “Motherwell to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.53 for Motherwell, 0.98 for ST Mirren.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (1X — Motherwell win or draw).
These values were computed from 771 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Motherwell to win49.7%

Draw27.5%

ST Mirren to win22.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

10	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Motherwell lead at half-time35.9%

Level at half-time45.1%

ST Mirren lead at half-time19.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Motherwell ahead or level81.0%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or ST Mirren ahead64.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 771 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Motherwell: at least 8Actual: 10
ST Mirren: at least 13Actual: 13

Corners

Motherwell: at least 4Actual: 9
ST Mirren: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Motherwell score1.47

Attack: Motherwell score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: ST Mirren's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals ST Mirren score1.04

Attack: ST Mirren score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Motherwell's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–011.7%2–110.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.