Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 21

Heart Of Midlothian–Livingston

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 3 January 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Heart Of MidlothianCraig Halkett (assist: J. Altena)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heart Of Midlothian		Livingston
17	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	7
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
63%	Possession	37%
511	Passes	299
415	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian 2.34 · Livingston 0.58. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Heart Of Midlothian 17 · Livingston 10; on target 3 and 2.
Heart Of Midlothian kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

C. Graham→

4.96

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 77.1%: “Heart Of Midlothian to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 16.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.36 for Heart Of Midlothian, 0.62 for Livingston.
The highest double chance value is 93.2% (1X — Heart Of Midlothian win or draw).
These values were computed from 771 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heart Of Midlothian to win77.1%

Draw16.1%

Livingston to win6.8%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Heart Of Midlothian lead at half-time53.9%

Level at half-time36.3%

Livingston lead at half-time9.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Heart Of Midlothian ahead or level90.2%

12 — not level at half-time63.7%

X2 — level or Livingston ahead46.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 771 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 10Actual: 5
Livingston: at least 13Actual: 15

Corners

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 5Actual: 7
Livingston: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score2.34

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Livingston concede 30% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Livingston score0.58

Attack: Livingston score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.58 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–014.7%3–011.5%1–011.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.