Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 18

ST Mirren–Livingston

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The SMISA Stadium, Paisley

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

72'ST MirrenM. Mandron (assist: D. John)

Match statistics

Match statistics
ST Mirren		Livingston
16	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	0
13	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
478	Passes	351
370	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: ST Mirren 1.75 · Livingston 0.92. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots ST Mirren 16 · Livingston 4; on target 4 and 0.
ST Mirren kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

C. Graham→

5.12

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.3%: “ST Mirren to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for ST Mirren, 0.99 for Livingston.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — ST Mirren win or draw).
These values were computed from 753 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

ST Mirren to win51.3%

Draw26.8%

Livingston to win21.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

ST Mirren lead at half-time41.4%

Level at half-time42.3%

Livingston lead at half-time16.2%

First-half double chance

1X — ST Mirren ahead or level83.8%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Livingston ahead58.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 753 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

ST Mirren: at least 12Actual: 9
Livingston: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

ST Mirren: at least 5Actual: 7
Livingston: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals ST Mirren score1.75

Attack: ST Mirren score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Livingston concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Livingston score0.92

Attack: Livingston score below the league average (25% fewer).

Opponent's defence: ST Mirren's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.92 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–011.3%2–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.