Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 13

Dundee Utd–Falkirk

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tannadice Park, Dundee

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'FalkirkC. Miller
22'FalkirkY. Kucherenko (own goal)
63'FalkirkB. Graham (assist: C. Miller)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dundee Utd		Falkirk
13	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
43%	Possession	57%
317	Passes	449
219	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dundee Utd 1.79 · Falkirk 1.22. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Dundee Utd 13 · Falkirk 16; on target 5 and 4.
Falkirk kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Nick Walsh, Scotland→

4.25

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.5%: “Dundee Utd to win”. Second comes “Falkirk to win” at 26.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for Dundee Utd, 1.20 for Falkirk.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 723 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dundee Utd to win47.5%

Draw26.2%

Falkirk to win26.3%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

23	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Dundee Utd lead at half-time44.1%

Level at half-time39.0%

Falkirk lead at half-time16.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Dundee Utd ahead or level83.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.0%

X2 — level or Falkirk ahead55.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 723 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dundee Utd: at least 12Actual: 23
Falkirk: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Dundee Utd: at least 4Actual: 5
Falkirk: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dundee Utd score1.79

Attack: Dundee Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Falkirk's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Falkirk score1.22

Attack: Falkirk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dundee Utd's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.4%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.