Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 12

Heart Of Midlothian–Dundee Utd

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 18%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Heart Of MidlothianY. Kucherenko (own goal)
45'Dundee UtdL. Stephenson (assist: A. Fatah)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heart Of Midlothian		Dundee Utd
11	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	4
63%	Possession	37%
484	Passes	294
368	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian 2.17 · Dundee Utd 0.88. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Heart Of Midlothian 11 · Dundee Utd 7; on target 2 and 3.
Heart Of Midlothian kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

John Beaton, Scotland→

4.73

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 71.1%: “Heart Of Midlothian to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 18.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.36 for Heart Of Midlothian, 0.88 for Dundee Utd.
The highest double chance value is 89.2% (1X — Heart Of Midlothian win or draw).
These values were computed from 719 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heart Of Midlothian to win71.1%

Draw18.1%

Dundee Utd to win10.8%

When the model has said 70–75% in the past, 560 of 732 predictions were correct (76.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Heart Of Midlothian lead at half-time47.0%

Level at half-time38.8%

Dundee Utd lead at half-time14.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Heart Of Midlothian ahead or level85.8%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Dundee Utd ahead53.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 719 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 9Actual: 18
Dundee Utd: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 6Actual: 4
Dundee Utd: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score2.17

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Dundee Utd's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dundee Utd score0.88

Attack: Dundee Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.2%2–110.6%1–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.