Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 9

Dundee Utd–ST Mirren

3–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tannadice Park, Dundee

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'ST MirrenD. N'Lundulu
42'Dundee UtdZ. Sapsford
83'ST MirrenA. Gogić · red card
84'Dundee UtdA. Fatah (penalty)
90'Dundee UtdC. Sibbald (assist: N. Möller)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dundee Utd		ST Mirren
13	Shots	23
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	17
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	12
3	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
291	Passes	327
192	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dundee Utd 1.51 · ST Mirren 1.19. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Dundee Utd 13 · ST Mirren 23; on target 5 and 3.
ST Mirren kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

John Beaton, Scotland→

4.71

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “Dundee Utd to win”. Second comes “ST Mirren to win” at 30.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.44 for Dundee Utd, 1.21 for ST Mirren.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 703 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dundee Utd to win41.6%

Draw27.9%

ST Mirren to win30.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–1

Dundee Utd lead at half-time27.7%

Level at half-time44.0%

ST Mirren lead at half-time28.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Dundee Utd ahead or level71.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or ST Mirren ahead72.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 703 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dundee Utd: at least 9Actual: 7
ST Mirren: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Dundee Utd: at least 4Actual: 4
ST Mirren: at least 4Actual: 12

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dundee Utd score1.51

Attack: Dundee Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: ST Mirren's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals ST Mirren score1.19

Attack: ST Mirren score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dundee Utd's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%2–19.7%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.