Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 9

Livingston–Motherwell

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'LivingstonJ. Bokila (penalty)
59'MotherwellA. Stamatelopoulos (penalty)
90'MotherwellE. Just (assist: Callum Slattery)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Livingston		Motherwell
11	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	11
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
0	Corners	3
6	Offsides	2
36%	Possession	64%
336	Passes	618
248	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Livingston 1.24 · Motherwell 1.45. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Livingston 11 · Motherwell 15; on target 4 and 2.
Motherwell kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Nick Walsh, Scotland→

4.19

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Motherwell to win”. Second comes “Livingston to win” at 29.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Livingston, 1.52 for Motherwell.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 703 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Livingston to win29.9%

Draw27.2%

Motherwell to win42.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Livingston lead at half-time29.6%

Level at half-time44.0%

Motherwell lead at half-time26.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Livingston ahead or level73.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Motherwell ahead70.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 703 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Livingston: at least 13Actual: 18
Motherwell: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Livingston: at least 5
Motherwell: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Livingston score1.24

Attack: Livingston score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Motherwell's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Motherwell score1.45

Attack: Motherwell score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Livingston concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%1–29.9%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.