Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 7

Heart Of Midlothian–Hibernian

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'Heart Of MidlothianCraig Halkett (assist: S. Kerjota)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heart Of Midlothian		Hibernian
11	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	1
6	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	2
2	Offsides	3
62%	Possession	38%
483	Passes	296
403	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian 1.62 · Hibernian 1.21. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Heart Of Midlothian 11 · Hibernian 5; on target 3 and 1.
Heart Of Midlothian kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

David Dickinson, Scotland→

4.89

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.0%: “Heart Of Midlothian to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for Heart Of Midlothian, 1.07 for Hibernian.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Heart Of Midlothian win or draw).
These values were computed from 693 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heart Of Midlothian to win52.0%

Draw25.7%

Hibernian to win22.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Heart Of Midlothian lead at half-time30.9%

Level at half-time40.6%

Hibernian lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Heart Of Midlothian ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Hibernian ahead69.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 693 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 9Actual: 10
Hibernian: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 5Actual: 4
Hibernian: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score1.62

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hibernian's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hibernian score1.21

Attack: Hibernian score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.7%1–09.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.