Premiership · Scotland · 1st Phase - 6

Livingston–Rangers

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'RangersJ. Tavernier (assist: Oliver Antman)
68'LivingstonM. Sylla (assist: A. Montgomery)
90'RangersM. Aarons (assist: N. Raskin)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Livingston		Rangers
9	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
35%	Possession	65%
276	Passes	516
208	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Livingston 0.85 · Rangers 1.98. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Livingston 9 · Rangers 15; on target 3 and 7.
Rangers kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

John Beaton, Scotland→

4.70

yellows per match

0.35

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.3%: “Rangers to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.94 for Livingston, 2.01 for Rangers.
The highest double chance value is 84.5% (X2 — draw or Rangers win).
These values were computed from 690 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Livingston to win15.5%

Draw22.2%

Rangers to win62.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Livingston win or draw37.7%

12 — any result other than a draw77.8%

X2 — draw or Rangers win84.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Livingston lead at half-time24.8%

Level at half-time42.6%

Rangers lead at half-time32.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Livingston ahead or level67.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.4%

X2 — level or Rangers ahead75.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 690 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Livingston: at least 11Actual: 18
Rangers: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Livingston: at least 3Actual: 4
Rangers: at least 6Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Livingston score0.85

Attack: Livingston score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Rangers concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Rangers score1.98

Attack: Rangers score above the league average (45% more).

Opponent's defence: Livingston's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%1–211.0%0–210.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 690 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 72 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.